Guidance on how to consider climate change impacts, and strategies for how to address them through natural resource management, is available through multiple military instructions and manuals. One of the earlier Literature Cited to climate change within the context of DoD natural resources management is in DoD Instruction 4715.3, Environmental Conservation Program (1996). Among the numerous principles and guidelines for ecosystem management is the following: “Ecosystem management requires consideration of the effects of installation programs and actions at spatial and temporal ecological scales that are relevant to natural processes… Consideration of sustainability under long-term environmental threats, such as climate change, is also important.” The Instruction requires all DoD components to assess the potential impacts of climate change to natural resources on DoD installations and to develop and implement adaptive management strategies.
DoD Manual 4715.03, Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) Implementation Manual (2013) contains guidance on climate change planning (see Enclosure 8: Planning for Climate Change Impacts to Natural Resources). The manual notes that “ecosystem effects of climate change will likely be incremental and challenging to distinguish and address.” For this reason, planning and managing for climate change must rely on an “adaptive process of developing, validating, and improving forecast models.” It directs natural resources personnel to use a wide variety of information when updating an INRMP to incorporate climate change considerations, to include:
- Historical regional trends and projections of future climate or sea level rise relevant to the region.
- Information developed for other purposes (e.g., facilities risk assessments) that natural resources personnel can use to assess climate change impacts or adaptation strategies.
- A discussion of sustainability in the context of climate change in the management strategies section. This discussion should support, at a minimum, the development and updating of vulnerability assessments. These must be identified in the INRMP and the implementation table to ensure allocation of funding.
- Information from regional collaboration to develop vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies.
- Collaboration with DoD mission leads for comprehensive incorporation of training and test vulnerabilities related to climate change.
The manual also provides guidance on conducting vulnerability assessments and exploring how rare species vulnerabilities may impact installation missions; adding climate change to INRMP threats analysis; updating best management practices in response to potential climate change risks to unique landscapes, ecosystems, and habitats; and directing natural resources personnel to collaborate with natural resources agencies and the public to proactively identify the likely effects of climate change, to adapt, meet compliance requirements, and manage resources effectively.
The military services have developed supplemental guidance in response to DoD and Service policy and guidance. For example, Air Force Instruction 32-7064, Integrated Natural Resources Management (November 2014), identifies requirements to manage natural resources on Air Force installations in accordance with applicable federal, state, and local laws and regulations. Paragraph 3.8.3 speaks specifically to climate change in the context of installation INRMPs: “Changing climate conditions may significantly affect native ecosystems and require the Air Force to adjust natural resources management strategies to support military mission requirements and address the needs of sensitive species. INRMP goals and objectives for ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation must consider projected climate change impacts and favor an adaptive ecosystem-based management approach that will enhance the resiliency of the ecosystem to adapt to changes in climate. The INRMP will assess climate change risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies using authoritative, region-specific climate science, climate projections, and existing tools. The INRMP should list, or include by reference, installation-specific climate data and region-specific climate projections from the most current quadrennial National Climate Assessment Report, and include other pertinent Federal climate science documents as appropriate.” Similar guidance in the form of instructions and manuals also exists for the Navy, Marine Corps and Army.
Building on sustainability issues raised in DoD’s annual Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, and in response to requirements in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2018, DoD prepared its Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense32 in 2019. The report, focused on results from 79 mission priority installations, provides an assessment of the significant current and potential vulnerabilities to installation lands and infrastructure from climate-related events over the next 20 years. The list of climate-related events was limited to five climatechange related events: recurrent flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires, and thawing permafrost (Table 5.1). Some impacts are closely related or intensify the effects of each other (e.g., drought, desertification, wildfire), whereas others are somewhat related (e.g., coastal flooding driven by changing sea level can impact river conveyance, compounding riverine flood levels for tidally influenced rivers). Taken together, however, these impacts help describe the overall vulnerabilities to DoD installations from changing future conditions. Results indicate that recurrent flooding, drought, and wildfires are the primary concerns at the 79 installations included in the analysis. The analysis did not address biological impacts or vulnerabilities associated with climate change.
Table 5.1 Summary of current and future (20 years) vulnerabilities to military installations (Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment 2019).
32 Prepared by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment.
There was enormous progress and momentum between roughly 2005 and 2015 to integrate climate change into INRMPs. However, as of 2015 there was still little to no specific consideration of installation-specific climate change exposure, species and habitat vulnerability, and adaptation planning/implementation within INRMPS. The typical INRMP of the era might have contained a single paragraph speaking to DoD’s recognition of the issue and its commitment to integrating it as a potential threat/stressor, or perhaps a brief discussion of climate change mitigation. However,; the capability of installations with respect to expertise and staffing capacity was extremely limited. This continues to largely be the case and is also common among other federal and state natural resource management agencies. To help remedy the situation and provide a more specific and applied framework for installation natural resource managers, DoD funded the development of a technical guide: Climate Adaptation for DoD Natural Resource Managers: A Guide to Incorporating Climate Change Considerations into Integrated Natural Resources Management Plans (Stein et al. 2019).33 The guide introduces installation managers to overarching adaptation concepts and principles, and is structured around a generalized, yet flexible, INRMP adaptation planning process consisting of six steps:
The guide consists of two major sections. Part I includes an overview of climate risks to military installations and mission requirements; an introduction to adaptation; a brief primer on climate science; a review of options for incorporating climate concerns into INRMPs; and a summary of climate and adaptation considerations for individual INRMP program elements. Part II offers a step-by-step method for carrying out the INRMP adaptation planning process. A series of appendices provide sources of adaptation-related information and expertise and a set of detailed worksheets that support installation-level application of the six-step INRMP adaptation planning process (see box below). Training in applying the concepts has been provided by the guide author and others in workshop settings. This has begun to build capacity for INRMP integration among DoD and installation staffs, contractors, and cooperators.
33https://www.denix.osd.mil/nr/dodadaptationguide/
Next Page: Box 5.3: Practicing climate adaptation and enhancing installation resilience: Integrating climate change considerations in the INRMP
Author
David S. Jones, RA IV, Ecologist/Project Manager
Center for Environmental Management of Military Lands
Warner College of Natural Resources
Colorado State University